Created by
Angelica Jackson

Description:
Did you know that you can figure out the chances of an event? This lesson on probability will teach your students how to figure out the chances, or probability, of selecting a certain color tile out of a set of tiles. Students will then be able to write this probability as a fraction.

Expected Duration:
1 session, about 30 to 45 minutes in length, depending on if BrainPop or unitedstreaming is used.

Florida Sunshine State Standard/GLE:
MA.E.2.2.2.5.2
The student explains and predicts which outcomes are most likely to occur and expresses the probabilities as fractions.

Materials:
Colored tiles
Brown paper lunch bags
Recording Sheets
Copies of rubric
LCD projector
Computer

Teacher Preparations:
1. Gather enough brown lunch paper bags for half the students in your class.
2. Gather plastic colored tiles (enough for each group to have 5 red, 5 yellow, and 5 blue). If you do not have plastic colored tiles, you can use any type of counter that has various colors of the same object.
3. Copy the “recording sheet” so that you have enough for half your class (you will pair up your students.) (See Additional Files)
4. Make enough copies of the rubric so that you have one for each student in your class.
5. Have your LCD projector and computer ready on the weblink video that you are going to use.

Instructions:
NOTE: Students need to have a prior understanding of fractions, reducing fractions, and understanding of the meaning of the term probability.

1. Divide the class into pairs.

2. Distribute a brown lunch bag, colored tiles or similar counters (5 red, 5 blue, and 5 yellow) to each pair of students.

3. Distribute a recording sheet to each to each individual student. (See Additional Files)

4. Model one game along with the students. Have the students place 5 red, 4 blue, and 3 yellow counters in their bags.

5. Ask the students to predict what the probability (chance) would be of pulling a red counter out of the bag (5 out of 12, or 5/12).

6. Have students pull a counter out of the bag.

7. Have students record the color using tally marks on their recording sheet.

8. Place the counter back in the bag. Have students repeat steps 5 and 6 four more times.

9. Students then write down the fraction of the red color tiles to the total color tiles of their activity. Students reduce these fractions if able to.

10. Students compare these fractions to the initial probability of the activity.

11. Share individual results.

12. Students then work in their pairs to play another game. One partner selects how many tiles to put in the bag.

13. Students predict and record the probability fraction of the red tiles (or yellow or blue) to total tiles.

14. The other partner then pulls out the specified number of tiles out of the bag (either the specified number of red, yellow, or blue---whatever the pair selected to be the target color.)

15. Students record this fraction on the recording sheet next to the probability fraction.

16. Students do this activity two more times to complete the recording sheet.

17. Once the activity and recording sheet is completed, discuss pair and group results.

18. Collect recording sheets.

19. Assess recording sheets with the rubric. (See Additional Files)

20. Review the lesson by viewing a video from BrainPop.com (Basic Probability). Students can take the quiz as a whole group after viewing the animated video clip. (BrainPop is by subscription only but does have a free preview.) (See Weblinks)

21. You may choose to view a unitedstreaming video, Discovering Math: Probability with your students. (These videos are by subscription only but have a free preview). (See Weblinks)

Formative Assessment:
Criteria:
1. The students’ explanations are likely to occur.
2. The predictions of outcomes are likely to occur.
3. The student has correct answers to the probability problems.
4. The items are correctly answered as fractions.

Student Evidence:
The student will play a probability game. This game will show problems, predictions, and correct answers to the game.

Method for Student Feedback:
A rubric will show if the student accomplished the criteria.

Technology Integration:
Teacher technology is evident through the use of streaming video and web sites.
Students will use technology through the use of the streaming video and the BrainPOP! website.

Web Links:

http://www.brainpop.com/math/dataanalysisandprobability/basicprobability/

Website Title: BrainPOP! video called Basic Probability

Description: This is a BrainPOP! lesson that teaches probability for students in grades 3-5. It lasts approximately 5 minutes and is entertaining and engaging. The students will LOVE it! This site is a subscription site requiring a password. If your school does not have a subscription, you can access this site for a short, free trial period.


http://www.unitedstreaming.com

Website Title: unitedstreaming video called Discovering Math: Probability

Description: This is a video showing basic probability. This site is a subscription site requiring a password. If your school does not have a subscription, you can access this site for a short, free trial period.

Additional Files:

Probability Grading Rubric
Probability Recording Sheet